2017-18 NBA Predictions

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UPDATED SEP. 14, 2017 AT 1:50 PM

2017-18 NBA PredictionsBased on “CARM-Elo,� a mixture of workforce Elo scores and our CARMELO participant projections. Up to date after each and every recreation.

Extra NBA:  CARMELO projections   Each and every team’s Elo historical past

StandingsGames

AVG. SIMULATED SEASON PLAYOFF CHANCES
ELO CARM-ELO 1-WEEK CHANGE TEAM CONFERENCE RECORD POINT DIFF/G MAKE PLAYOFFS TOP SEED WIN TITLE
1707 1741 -88 Warriors1-2 West sixty one-21 +eight.1 >ninety nine% fifty three% 30%
1618 1641 -sixteen Cavaliers2-1 East fifty six-26 +6.three ninety eight% forty seven% 14%
1534 1612 +forty eight Timberwolves2-zero West fifty two-30 +four.eight 88% 10% 6%
1530 1608 +nine Thunder1-zero West fifty one-31 +four.1 eighty three% eight% 6%
1621 1605 +24 Clippers1-zero West 50-32 +four.three eighty three% 7% five%
1597 1596 +forty three Rockets2-1 West 50-32 +four.three eighty two% 7% five%
1526 1593 -10 Raptors1-1 East 50-32 +three.6 ninety three% 18% 7%
1586 1591 -26 Spurs0-1 West forty eight-34 +2.eight seventy six% five% four%
1560 1582 -sixteen Jazz1-1 West forty nine-33 +2.7 seventy eight% five% five%
1550 1577 +eleven Path Blazers1-1 West forty seven-35 +2.7 seventy two% four% three%
1507 1548 +12 Bulls1-zero East forty seven-35 +2.zero eighty four% eleven% three%
1552 1539 +eighty one Hawks2-zero East forty six-36 +2.five eighty five% 10% three%
1467 1509 +forty four Magic2-1 East forty two-forty +1.2 seventy two% four% 2%
1475 1503 +31 Mavericks1-2 West 39-forty three -zero.three 36% <1% <1%
1449 1494 -forty Hornets1-1 East forty one-forty one -zero.four sixty six% three% 1%
1578 1490 +21 Wizards2-zero East forty-forty two +zero.2 sixty three% three% <1%
1524 1487 +37 Grizzlies2-zero West 39-forty three -zero.five 36% <1% <1%
1531 1480 -6 Nuggets0-1 West 39-forty three -zero.eight 35% <1% <1%
1454 1471 -ninety one Celtics0-three East 37-forty five -2.6 forty eight% <1% <1%
1533 1450 +forty three Bucks1-1 East 37-forty five -1.four forty six% 1% <1%
1426 1448 -30 Pistons0-2 East 36-forty six -2.2 forty one% <1% <1%
1395 1436 -nine Knicks0-1 East 34-forty eight -2.nine 35% <1% <1%
1417 1434 -15 Kings1-1 West 33-forty nine -three.nine 14% <1% <1%
1461 1428 -24 Pelicans0-2 West 31-fifty one -four.2 10% <1% <1%
1465 1417 -31 Pacers0-1 East 32-50 -three.7 25% <1% <1%
1511 1398 -18 Heat0-1 East 31-fifty one -four.four 21% <1% <1%
1374 1396 -14 Suns1-1 West 29-fifty three -four.6 6% <1% <1%
1385 1382 +three 76ers1-2 East 29-fifty three -four.nine sixteen% <1% <1%
1391 1353 +three Lakers1-1 West 26-fifty six -6.nine 2% <1% <1%
1421 1334 +24 Nets1-zero East 25-fifty seven -6.2 6% <1% <1%

Forecast fromTodaySept. 14 (preseason)

How this works: This forecast is in accordance with 50,000 simulations of the season and bills for staff fatigue, go back and forth distance to video games, and residential courts with upper altitudes. Elo scores are a degree of workforce power in accordance with head-to-head effects and high quality of opponent, at the same time as our CARMELO projections estimate a player’s long run efficiency in accordance with the trajectory of alternative, identical NBA gamers. Our CARM-Elo scores, which energy the forecast type, mix those metrics to degree a workforce’s high quality in response to each its recreation effects and its roster. Complete method »

Through Jay Boice, Ella Koeze and Nate Silver. Further contributions from Neil Paine. Representation via Elias Stein.

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